ࡱ>  up3 bjbjOO %--b]ppppXXXllll8(lUH  n &#[U]U]U]U]U]U]U$LV@XUX$^$$U1pp H111$pR R [Ullpppp$[U117O"6"[U |bFnll~+T Real Time Study Group Department of Computer Science University of Wales, Cardiff Performance Information Systems for Departmental Standards with applications to Alerting, Modelling and Audit in Real Time (AMART) on Web based Public Service Process Diagrams 27th April 2001 Nick Green BSc(hons), CEng, FCybS Chairman Real Time Study Group Room 40 5-7 Belsize Grove London NW3 4UT 020-7916 0285 nick.green@cs.cf.ac.uk Presentation to Tamara Finkelstein Senior Adviser on Public Expenditure General Expenditure Policy Team  Performance Information Systems for Departmental Standards via the Top Down Analysis of Performance Standards With notes on Culture, Public Service Process Diagrams and alerting management information systems for audit and modelling of future policies and standards.--------------------------------------------------------2 Appendices The Real Time Study Group ISB Expression of Interest.----------------9 The Statistics on Information for Standards Performance Project Proposal.------------------------------------------------------------------------15 The Top Down Analysis of Performance Standards Slide 1 Slide 2  EMBED PowerPoint.Slide.8   EMBED PowerPoint.Slide.8  At the end of this project we see an architecture of this kind with data from local area networks in offices indeed any source of Internet technology from e-mail and HTML Forms to wap phones and FTP (eg for legacy data) Not shown is the likely replication of Marts and Warehouses if eventual demand traffic is to be satisfied. The model of management developed by Stafford Beer (eg "Brain of the Firm" 2nd. Edn. 1994 Beer and "The Viable System Model"1989 ed. Espejo and Harnden all Wiley) that establishes the fundamental basis for statistics and standards in management and their use in alerting, modelling and audit. Slide 3 EMBED PowerPoint.Slide.8 Alex and Antonia are the founder members of RTSG founded by Nick in 1997. Alex has consulted for HMT on statistical databases in the early days of desktop computing. His research group is one of the largest in the country. Antonia's recently discovered Gamma Test measures the least error a given set of smooth data can yield when modelled. Allenna is an internationally celebrated cybernetician and long time collaborator of Stafford Beer. Tom is a world expert on Internet and associated technologies. He is recently returned from US after NASA supported development of his improvements to TCP/IP (the core Internet protocol). Nick designed Compunet a personal computer/server network some years before WWW and HTTP. It had many advanced features much of which is today emulated on the web. Venus, A.L.Digital and Formation ltd. may be invited to sub-contract for a prototype.. Slide 4 EMBED PowerPoint.Slide.8 A mapping of the Civil Service Management Board productivity requirement (proposed by the Public Service Productivity Panel) to the Real Time Study groups proposals to instrument the current state of the Public Service with alerts, models and audit accessed via Public Service Diagrams on the web. Slide 5 EMBED PowerPoint.Slide.8 Quarterly reporting is not enough. To be of operational use to managers in the field staff and managers need daily or real time feedback of performance achievement and failings. A desirable aim would be to show the effect of an absence on the performance of the organisation. Most importantly changes of policy or standard proposed by field staff should be immediately checkable for feasibility by modelling with data from the Data Warehouse.Slide 6 EMBED PowerPoint.Slide.8 We would engineer data capture so that the relevant statistic is written once only at source by eg e-mail. Aggregation would be computed- not kept hidden in draws by senior staff awaiting weekly, monthly quarterly aggregation. All data would be subject to revision.Slide 7 EMBED PowerPoint.Slide.8 Often many numbers go into estimating a performance indicator. In fact to be of any value all the resources consumed must be accounted for. It is for this reason that audit in real time is part of the RTSG specification. Slide 8 EMBED PowerPoint.Slide.8 By simply summing components, integrating, we can obtain audit between desired periods. Green's Compunet routinely provided management reports in this way. When an unusually large gradient is seen in a time series it often indicates a standard is being violated; an undesirable trend, merely a transient or a step change. The discrimation of these desiderata is only possible with raw unaggregated data, ideally real-time data. Performance data not monitored means a system not controlled- one control response every three months inevitably yields imprecise control and more unneccessary waste. Slide 9 EMBED PowerPoint.Slide.8 Public Service Diagrams will show various performance statistics and their standards and definitions. Further clicks will provide more detailed information. These displays could cohere with the Freedom of Information requirement for Public Authorities' Model Publishing Schemes. They can show alerts in progress and discuss standards development.Slide 10 EMBED PowerPoint.Slide.8 Public Service Diagrams may come in many forms. The best will emerge at the prototype design stage. In general they will unfold hierarchically providing a top- down model of "The System". Slide 11 EMBED PowerPoint.Slide.8 Another form of the Public Service Process Model showing three levels and an alert escalated to level 3. Alerts seem to be culture defining. Who takes responsibility and the type of action resulting: standard response, innovation, or simple rescheduling. However is the relevant manger able to help staff to innovate, if necessary? If not can this mean bullying? Or just escalation? How are standards negotiated? This defines culture. Slide 12 EMBED PowerPoint.Slide.8 Those who prefer non-accountability? Sometimes rationalised as maintenance of autonomy but there can be no autonomy without responsibility. (Viable System Theory and Interaction of Actor axioms) Slide 13 EMBED PowerPoint.Slide.8 Dr Andrew Larner of IDeA offers his assistance in setting up the Local Authority subscriber base. We will identify the best and the worst of Local Authorities and encourage them to pool raw data. RTSG propose an Application Service Provider (ASP) model unless HMT propose fully centralised funding for the project. Slide 14 EMBED PowerPoint.Slide.8 Some examples of field considerations: We have identified a simple method of extracting statistics from the new NHS Health record system without interfering with standard working practices With Home Office plans seem still to be under consideration and in view of an enthusiastic response from Data Managers we currently recommend direct data acquisition. This is under review. Clearly Foot and Mouth shows us why RTSG methodology is vital for further development of the countryside. Slide 15 EMBED PowerPoint.Slide.8 The original proposals from RTSG envisaged some 10% of Central Government, Local Authorities, and Health Authorities participating with 1% of national quantified data. Implementing top-down from the 165 or so performance agreements could lead to this target being substantially exceeded with daily or real-time component data collected. In initialising a new performance series a senior manager responsible for alerts and e-mails etc of data sources for computing performance are registered. (We call this secure e-mail "Statmail".) Availability of e-mail is the minimum requirement for participation. Couriers can be used if appropriate see second appendix p. 17 section 1.32 in "The SIPS Project".Slide 16 EMBED PowerPoint.Slide.8 We suggest Tamara Finkelstein become our client. Her team and interdepartmental collaborators would approve our prototype (or not!) six months after start. Thence to phase two and three (cross government roll-out) as outlined in our plan for the Statistical Information on Performance Standards proposal. Thus we would instrument the Public Service. Liaison with her staff half a day per week should ensure the smooth running of the project.  Slide 17 EMBED PowerPoint.Slide.8 For the compliance challenged there are always statutory instruments! There is a tradition which relies on "showing" the instruments for obtaining compliance- in this context we feel the Senior Adviser on Public Expenditure to be uniquely placed to ensure our success in overcoming any undesirable resistance. We will monitor our implementation in real-time with with Departmental uptake rate suggested as a primary performance measure.  The Statmail AMART (Alerting, Modelling and Audit in Real Time) Project EXPRESSION OF INTEREST FOR ROUND 3 INVEST TO SAVE BUDGET Bid number (for Secretariat use)Lead Bidder HYPERLINK mailto:Christopher_angell@detr.gsi.gov.uk Christopher_angell@detr.gsi.gov.uk 020 7890 6952Brief Description of ProjectTo make graphically rich real-time statistics available for management enabling alerting, more facile modelling and eventually real-time audit.Parties to ProjectDETR LB Camden, CAI-AH, Home Office, DfEE, MAFF, HMC&E. Further councils and Health Authorities. Audit and Statistics Agencies. Real Time Study GroupInnovation and Benefits claimedUse of statistics for real-time Alerting. Greatly improved facilities for evidence based Policy making by modelling with statistics. Real-Time Audit. Establishment of chains of authority for maintenance of statistics within the proper management range. In effect the instrumentation of the Public Service Process with the use of web-based graphics to make mimic diagrams of the Public Service. The tangible and explicit product of the Modernisation of Government: instant knowledge of the current state of participants with a few mouse clicks. Demonstrable savings and performance achievements. True e-government. By analogy with continuous flow process industries upgrading from batch processes we can expect an increase in quality with considerable cost savings of the order of 25%.ISb Funding (in 000s)2001-02 1,2002002-03 1,2002003-04 1,200Current1000 10001000Capital Totals200200200Bid conditions metSpending team/CO/GOR views(for Secretariat use)Secretariat DETR assessment(for Secretariat use)Score(for Secretariat use) OR The STAART Project (Statistics, Alerting and Audit in Real Time) THE PROJECT The AMART team will promote the project with health authorities, local and central government participants. Registered participants will send real-time or daily reports of quantitative activity by e-mail. Additionally customised low impact report generating software may be used to send data to the project data warehouse which may be distributed across participants servers and web sites. The results of these reports will be summarised and made available as required on both GSI and the World Wide Web. They will be displayed attached to hierarchically structured, graphically rich public service process mimic diagrams. A few mouse clicks will display current performance, text definitions and graphs of recent performance which unfold from summary global top-level report to low-level detail. Participants will have the option to add memo text commentaries to their reports. As the size of the data collected increases a data-mining interface will be added to aid in evidence based policy modelling, audit and customised statistical reports, for example. Most importantly within a few days of a new data series being registered for the first time management alerting to unexpectedly expensive or potentially dangerous statistical conditions will be possible. We aim to achieve 20,000 reports per day after three years with about 10% coming from Central Government. Conferences and training will be set up where necessary to attract from some 10% of Local Authorities and Area Health Authorities. We aim to tackle selected areas in sufficient depth to achieve Real Time Audit. We will: Construct a registration dialogue. Build a potentially very large secure distributed data warehouse. Construct a graphics package for representing public service processes and their quantitative measures. Display current performance and graphs of past performance. Show alerts in progress with details by secure GSI e-mail. Prepare a data-mining interface for facile evidence based policy modelling and audit. Perform system analysis for appropriate diagrammatic representation of participants Public Service process. Train users to build their own representations of participant Public Service processes. Document and formally specify the system to enable tendering for full roll out across the Public Service in 2004. We have suggested a Transaction Agency be set up to take over the running of the AMART Public Service Data Warehouse. This might be a single agency or distributed throughout departments. The team will license its software so that continued development is assured. We are particularly interested to see the Statmail AMART approach adopted in Europe and developing countries. For the period of ISb funding the Real Time Study Group will grant free software licenses. We suggest an AMART Project Advisory Committee is set up with representatives of participant bodies, Cabinet Office, the Audit and Statistical Agencies. At the end of the project they will decide whether to accept the finished prototype for operation by a Transactions Agency or go to tender with commercial software suppliers. The Central Idea By analogy with industrial processes we call this the instrumentation of the public service. We make vital current state and past information easily available for managers, modellers and policy makers and by use of directed alerts we avoid the problems of information overload. In his famous joint paper with Darwin to the Linnean Society in 1858 Wallace recognised that the Watt steam governor was like the evolutionary process. This explains the Real Time Study Groups central idea that the provision of formal real-time feedback will encourage more rapid evolution of Public Service management. This is true e-government. Responsibility and Autonomy Using Internet technology (e.g. e-mail Statmail, Oracle and XML) our Project will establish chains of responsibility for maintaining performance within proper limits. A participant registers a statistical series and an agreed alerting criterion with his manger to detect, for example, a cost too high, a delay too long or a death or injury too many. Any significant deviation from the agreed capability would cause an alerting e-mail to be automatically sent to the responsible manager. Any delay in bringing a statistic back within capability would lead to a more senior manager being notified. As e-mail is adopted as the preferred method of formal communication the rapid spread of this approach is assured. Alert reporting criteria define participants autonomy or discretionary power and cultural problems of acceptance can arise. Objections are overcome with the realisation that agreed and explicit formal performance alerting criteria for management intervention at all levels can assist in diminishing bullying and promoting fairness and proper recognition of achievement in an organisation. PARTICIPANTS Where feasible we will focus on Social Exclusion with data from, for example, Health Action Zones, Housing, Schools, Social Workers and the Criminal Justice System. We have approached Home Office, HMC&E, MAFF, DfEE and DoH. ONS has no development plans that clash with our proposals. We recommend setting up a project advisory board for participants to enable best practice consultation in particular with ONS, the Government Statistical Service, NAO and the audit agencies with whom we continue to consult. Current contacts include Home Office Colin Harnett DfEE Colin Seal for Roy Wye MAFF Mrs L Reay HMC&E Steve Tompkins for Michael Hanson DoH Frances Harkins CO CITU Paul Waller NAO Nigel Salt ONS Vanessa Adams for Gill Eckersley LB Camden Andrew Stephen Camden and Islington Health Authority David Thomas FUTURE PARTICIPANTS In due course invitations for participation will be extended to other Local Authorities and Local Area Health Authorities. Broadly responses are encouraging. Most recognise that something of this kind is long overdue and with the exception of two or three isolated cases Cultural Resistance has been limited. The e.gov? me.gov? notme.gov mentality has mercifully not been a problem to us so far. We trust the sift panel will see it the same way. INNOVATION Recent events show a scandalously poor Public Service management track record, which allowed for example, a Harold Shipman and widespread abuse in childrens homes. More recently we have the failure of the Nuclear Inspectorate in Sellafield. There is a substantial list of shame from the health service, police, courts and prisons to defence, fisheries and food, local authorities, housing and schools. Our systematic solution to this systematic management deficiency is automatic alerting. But given the data to meet that requirement we can additionally offer improved statistical modelling (and analysis) and enable real time audit. This is joined up Government in action: too often these disciplines are separate but as expert practitioners agree they are inseparable. BENEFITS In summary we will establish tangible, low cost and precise Real Time Control of Public Service management quality: its costs, delays, deaths and injuries. We offer this short detailed example. From Audit Commission in 1998/1999 Local Authority Performance Indicators the weekly cost per household of housing repairs in England is analysed as an example of the sort of savings that Real Time Reporting will establish as routine. We ask you to apply this to any other data set with which you might be familiar. The average cost of repairs is 12.20 per week and 25% of repair cost more than 13.97 per week. Consider a hypothetical Housing Repairs Advisory Purchasing Department in DETR. They receive daily reports from LA Housing Repair Departments and they agree to send an alert if a threshold of 13.97 is exceeded. When the threshold is exceeded and an alert is received DETR conducts a quick investigation and a recommendation on how to reduce the cost is made. If this recommendation fails to bring the cost within the desired range, performance will start to depart from registered capability and a more senior manager will be informed and so on. If successful the Housing Repairs Advisory Purchasing Department and its manager will see the mean cost of housing repairs progressing to 9.06. Thus saving some 150 per year across every council house in England. With a Treasury subsidy of about 30p participants would be charged about 10p per real-time report (under this scheme alerts and web accesses would be free). The project would aim to bring operating costs to 1-2p and with no subsidy by the end of the project. A daily report from every housing repair department in England would cost around 3-6.00. Applying AMART Project reporting for a year could save several hundred million pounds across Englands stock of Council Houses. Dedicating this project to one simple spending control application, as in the above example, will guarantee its cost benefits. But the method is general purpose since similar wide, skewed long tailed statistical distributions, reflecting poor regulation and quality control, are typical across government in not only costs, but also in delays, deaths and injuries. Large savings can be expected across all areas of the Public Service. Its application to Health for example could not only benefit patients but also provide the data that, until recently, an unsuspecting public had assumed was already collected. A preliminary study has already established potentially easy integration of our approach with DoHs LIS plans, for example. We strongly recommend this method be widely adopted at once. The regrettably pro-cyclical criticism in April from the IMF and the recent leak of the OECD Report that without regulatory change there was implicit inflationary pressure in Chancellor Browns current spending plans make this an urgent matter. The Real Time Study Group AMART project has the means of delivering the proper regulation so desperately needed. Appendix 1: Cost Elements Main Cost elements are described below. We will seek to move people on the team round as project proceeds. For example the system analysis team may spend more time on documentation and specification at the end of the project and data capture programmers might move toward work on data mining. We note some of this work e.g. promotion, training and participant public service process systems analysis could be undertaken by potential participants. The elements are costed at roughly 50k each per annum. The capital cost item will be spent on a web server and communication hardware for software development with the rest going to PCs as an incentive to data donors. Public Relations Training Conferences Promotion System Analysis Group Classification and Keywords Analyst Group Graphics Artist Identity Specialist Graphics Group XML Specialist SQL programmer PC C++ programmer DocumentationData Capture Group PC Transaction Capture programmer Database Report programmer Data Mining Group University Support: 2 Research Assistants PC Supply Server Hardware/Software Prototype Host Version 1 Registration Dialogue Data Warehouse Public Service Process Graphics Management  Appendix 2 The Real Time Study Group The Real Time Study Group is commercially unsponsored and based in the Department of Computer Science at the University of Wales. It was set up in 1997 after discussion with Cabinet Office in response to the deficiency in the then Better Government Plans for improvements to quantitative methods. We have six full members: Professor Alec Gray Advanced Information Systems, Head of one of the UKs largest Database Research Groups; Professor Antonia Jones Evolutionary Computing expert and inventor of the Gamma Test for estimating noise in Statistical Models; Dr Allenna Leonard management consultant, Dr Robin Bailey and Dr Alan Mills web specialists. We hope Robin and Alan ( HYPERLINK http://www.venus.co.uk www.venus.co.uk) will complete the first version of the prototype software (by October 1st 2001). Nick Green (Chairman) Software Engineer responsible for UKs World Wide Web precursor Compunet. Appendix 3 Model Publishing Schemes, Citizen Records and Public Service Computing Architecture Data gathered in this way can also be used to meet the requirements of Freedom of Information Public Authority Model Publishing Schemes. We will aim to attract (by providing a lowest cost solution) at least some Public Authorities to adopt the Real Time approach to their required model publishing schemes by the end of the Project. As the citizen-life-event centred approach to public service delivery becomes more prevalent individual citizens might use the data warehouse, within the constraints of the Data Protection Act, to retrieve their private anonymysed records. Again by the end of the Project we would hope to demonstrate the feasibility of this using an appropriate encryption scheme approved by the Office of the Information Commissioner. As the computing environment matures (with its falling costs and rising performance) it is possible that by attaching object-oriented methods to transactions we might provide a robust basis for a future government computing architecture. We simply point this out to demonstrate a future-proof quality of our proposals. INVEST TO SAVE BUDGET PRO FORMA FOR ROUND 3 FORMAL BIDS ASSESSMENT SHEET BID NO50(from your invitation to bid letter) Summary details Project title Statistical Information on Performance Standards (SIPS)Parties to project (lead partner in bold) DETR Home Office HMC&E DH MfEE MAFF Local Authorities Area Health Authorities Real Time Study Group (RTSG)Objectives of project Real Time collection of Statistical Performance Data for Alerting of managers for non-compliance with standards, Modelling and Audit Display of participants current state and history on mimic diagrams of Public Service Process on web browserDescription of project From the launch of the first version software (Oct. 2001) Public Authority subscribers will be sought to achieve 20,000 reports per day. A data mining interface will be constructed to enable Audit and improved statistical modelling of existing and potential policyRound 3 theme (secretariat use only) Policy category (secretariat use only) ISB funding sought  (in 000) 01/02 02/03 03/04 Current 1000 1000 1000 Capital 200 200 200 Total 1200 1200 1200 The SIPS Project  TOC \o "1-3" Introduction  PAGEREF _Toc500727782 \h 16 1.1 The Problem  PAGEREF _Toc500727783 \h 16 1.2 The Solution  PAGEREF _Toc500727784 \h 16 1.3 The Components  PAGEREF _Toc500727785 \h 17 2. Objectives of the SIPS Project  PAGEREF _Toc500727786 \h 18 3. Funding Requirements  PAGEREF _Toc500727787 \h 19 3.1 Alterations to Bid  PAGEREF _Toc500727788 \h 19 4. Innovation  PAGEREF _Toc500727789 \h 20 5. Benefits to Participants  PAGEREF _Toc500727790 \h 21 6. Estimated Savings  PAGEREF _Toc500727791 \h 22 7. Additionality Test  PAGEREF _Toc500727792 \h 22 8. Accountability and Audit  PAGEREF _Toc500727793 \h 22 9. Project Cycle Management  PAGEREF _Toc500727794 \h 23 9.1 Appraisal  PAGEREF _Toc500727795 \h 23 9.2 Risk Assessment and Expected Outcome  PAGEREF _Toc500727796 \h 24 10. Monitoring and Evaluation  PAGEREF _Toc500727797 \h 24 Annex 1: Implementation Plan and Budget  PAGEREF _Toc500727798 \h 25 Hardware  PAGEREF _Toc500727799 \h 27 Staff Plan  PAGEREF _Toc500727800 \h 28 Outline Budget  PAGEREF _Toc500727801 \h 28 Some Key Activities  PAGEREF _Toc500727802 \h 29 Public Service Process Diagram  PAGEREF _Toc500727803 \h 29 Project Management  PAGEREF _Toc500727804 \h 30 Analyst Group  PAGEREF _Toc500727805 \h 30 Sub-Contractors  PAGEREF _Toc500727806 \h 31 Manuals and Documentation  PAGEREF _Toc500727807 \h 31 Annex 2: The Real Time Study Group (RTSG)  PAGEREF _Toc500727808 \h 32 References  PAGEREF _Toc500727809 \h 32 CONTACTS  PAGEREF _Toc500727810 \h 32   TOC \c "Figure"  Figure 1 Funding Requirement  PAGEREF _Toc498969246 \h 19 Figure 2 Best Case NPV  PAGEREF _Toc498969247 \h 23 Figure 3 Worst Case NPV  PAGEREF _Toc498969248 \h 23 Figure 4 Risk Assessment and Expected Outcome  PAGEREF _Toc498969249 \h 24 Figure 5 Example Target Hardware Configuration  PAGEREF _Toc498969250 \h 28 Figure 6 Outline Budget  PAGEREF _Toc498969251 \h 29 Figure 7 Functionality of Public Service Process Diagram  PAGEREF _Toc498969252 \h 30  The SIPS Project Introduction The Real Time Study Group SIPS Project aims to show that by improving the delivery of performance feedback to Public Service managers regulation of operations will be improved and development enabled. When performance falls below standard an alert will be sent to the manager responsible. As sufficient data is gathered audit in real time becomes feasible and improved availability of better data for modelling potential new policies. Using World Wide Web compatible technology a Public Service Data Warehouse will be set up that supports Data Mining. Graphs of statistical information with summaries of the current state of performance and participants compliance with standards will be displayed on Public Service process diagrams. 1.1 The Problem The distribution of costs, delays, injuries and deaths in the Public Service are wide showing large variance. This pattern is seen whether considering deaths after hip surgery1 or the cost of repairing a council house2. Often the minimum in the country is five times smaller than the maximum, too often the range is larger. This is quantitative evidence of inconsistent Public Service management and consequently waste on a large scale. The comments by the Chancellor in HMTs recent Productivity in the UK3 that UK productivity lags some 35% behind competitors shows clearly the scale of potential savings if some means of direct regulation were found. Poor regulation allowed a Harold Shipman, unchallenged outcomes in Surgery, widespread abuse by officials in Childrens Homes, abandonment of Justice within the prison system, the release of potentially very dangerous noxious substances in BSE, GM food and exported plutonium from Sellafield. It is a long list that need not have grown if proper regulation had been available. 1.2 The Solution The Public Service Agreements and their associated Service Delivery Agreements (SDAs) 4 are clearly a necessary beginning to tackle these problems but the increasing complexity of technological change, environmental threat and the need to establish safety culture consciousness across the Public Service demand a new rigor. Since the introduction of statutory book keeping it has been a duty for company officers to record transactions in a timely manner. The Real Time Study Group (RTSG) seeks to use web technology to re-enforce this discipline in the Public Service. In 1997 it became apparent that the then Better Government plans were not going to include better means of using quantitative data. With the establishment of the RTSG it became apparent that if raw data were gathered to enable the exploitation of modern modelling techniques, such as Neural Net construction or Rule Extraction, audit would become feasible but, most importantly, alerting enabling the early detection of departure from standard of costs, delays, deaths or injuries, for example. The RTSG proposes World Wide Web technology that is e-Government Interoperability Framework (e-GIF) 5 compliant to acquire real time transaction and statistical data and, where feasible, legacy data. Our proposal is a low cost solution to providing a large-scale system that HM Treasury has called the Statistical Information on Performance Project. RTSGs Alerting, Modelling and Audit in Real Time (AMART) methodology is used to set up a Public Service Data Warehouse. 1.3 The Components 1.31 Real Time Data Collection Using e-mail when feasible and reports direct from database servers and local area networks the project aims to collect data about transactions as they occur. In the Public Sector statistics relating to transactions are recorded then often hidden away in files for aggregation perhaps weekly more likely monthly, quarterly and annually. It is the aim of the Project to make statistics relating to these transactions immediately available for management, even though they may be subject to revision. The data is then accessed, suitably anonymysed where necessary, via GSI web from a non-stop Data Warehouse. In this way performance data can be computed and its departure from standards signalled to responsible mangers as soon as significant deviations from standard occur. (Rather than waiting for the monthly, quarterly, biannual or annual report whose findings after digestion will then be promulgated top-down to responsible line-managers far too late for them to take any significant tactical action, allowing only strategic action from senior management.) 1.32 Alerting The Project Analysts and Software Team will create a registration dialogue of time series, standards and escalation criteria for statistical reports from points of service and centres for data collection. When a standard is sufficiently deviated from the responsible manager will be alerted and by default a timer started. If remedial action is not taken within the agreed period the next manger in the chain will automatically be informed. Ultimately alerts not dealt with by mangers could end up in the Ministers office and ultimately his or her desk. Where e-mail chains do not reach in Departments e-mail couriers will be established to ensure proper distribution of alerts. Project analysts will come to a participants offices and demonstrate registration to key personnel then facilitate training of others so the necessary skills are promulgated. A short user manual and a user guide on laminated card will be provided. Agreement of standards can be carried out by reference to appropriate internal targets, SDAs etc where these exist and left to the autonomy of responsible managers where they do not. 1.33 Modelling and Audit As data collections increase in size a Data Mining Interface will be set up to the Public Service Data Warehouse. A variety of simulation and analytic studies now become feasible from simple spreadsheet studies to more sophisticated Operational Research techniques, AI and Neural Net modelling, for example. As data become sufficient for a given participant organisation audit can be done on a daily or real time basis if so desired. Importantly staff can take an initiative in development activities because for the first time they will have the quantitative constraints on their operational activity made explicit. They can show how best to improve standards. 1.34 Participants Since 1997 consultation with many branches of Government both local and central has been undertaken by RTSG. We have established that these proposals do not clash with any intentions of ONS or NAO and that there are staff in MAFF, HMC&E, DfEE, DH, Home Office and DETR who we brief with a view to participate. Contact with Local Authorities and Local Area Health Authorities has established great potential for improvements and potentially easy integration in DHs LISS plans for future patient centred IT. RTSG discussions with Camden and Islington Area Health Authority, LB Camden and Coroners Officers at the St Pancras Court and London Underground Transport Police suggest an interesting kernel for possible early adoption of the technology. RTSG will work with DETR (our lead Department) to identify Local Authorities with suitable web oriented IT environments. We will then approach with a view to encouraging Real Time reporting in ways to make minimal impact on their routine data collection activities, but maximum impact on the quality of their management decision making. RTSG suggest the establishment of a project advisory committee (SIPSPAC) of central government participants with consultant or observer status to such bodies as NAO, Audit Commission, ONS, Cabinet Office CITU and Social Exclusion Unit and Treasury. This is important if proper crosscutting, joinedup approaches to e.g. Social Exclusion is to be realised. Also this will ensure best practice in recording and retrieving Statistics and Audit data and IT standards compliance. DH has already committed to adoption of web technology. RTSG hope to achieve, as with Local Authorities, 10% participation. As LISS proposals are firmed up, informed by the Performance Assessment Framework, RTSG will focus on e.g. Health Action Zones and Personal Social Services as part of the mission of ISB to focus on Social Exclusion. Recently the President of the Royal College of Surgeons stated that lack of IT infrastructure was holding up systematic recording of surgical outcomes by his members. The SIPS Project can clearly satisfy that requirement. Further suggestions made to potential Central Governments participants include: Criminal Justice statistics development may make it easier to deal directly with the Data Collection Units, Police Stations, Prisons, Probation Officers and Courts (Home Office). Schoolteacher and pupil achievement and attendance with a bias to Exclusion; unemployment register traffic and courses attended (DfEE). VAT receipts, alcohol and tobacco consumption (HMC&E). Agricultural practice, food, fishery populations, coastal pollution (MAFF). Local Authority activity, air and water quality, road repairs, bus and train quality (DETR). Clearly the final choice of statistics and transactions to be registered on-line with the SIPS Project lies with participant public authorities. Project analysts after characterising data formats can only advise and persuade. RTSG appreciate tact may be required- informed hopefully by suggestions from Treasury and DETR and their interpretation of SDAs etc. Once registration is de-skilled growth of use could be both facile and substantial. To promote uptake RTSG suggest a series of conferences, workshops and seminars. Ministers might be invited to the first conference at the time of launch of version 1.0 of the SIPS GSI compliant web server. Project promotion using e.g. VSM seminars (which originated the statistics and standards management approach), Interaction of Actors and Syntegrity workshops to formally select and adopt development objectives. 2. Objectives of the SIPS Project Ultimately the Project aims to control quality and costs, provide tools for policy development and the reduction of error, fraud and accident; the sharing of best practice and the improvement of the match of need and service provision. To this end RTSG will collect both financial and non-financial Public Service raw activity data for transformation to performance indexes suitable for alerts, audit and modelling. Where it is necessary to record a name and address, for example, RTSG will anonymyse the records held in an approved way. In consultation with the Information Commissioner RTSG hope to demonstrate a scheme for Citizens to retrieve their personal anonymysed records. RTSG is provisionally registered as a Data Controller under the 1998 Act. Participants should reflect that publication of their statistics on the web might be used to satisfy Public Authority Model Publishing Scheme requirements under forthcoming Freedom of Information legislation. With subscriptions in the region of 5,000 per annum region RTSG will demonstrate that if properly applied our service will enable proper Best Value in discharging any duties under the new legislation. Contingent on full finance being available from 1st April 2001 RTSG foresee: First fully functional (version 1.0) prototype available to subscribers from 1st October 2001 as an operational concept demonstrator. First meeting of Statistical Information on Performance Standards Project Advisory Committee (SIPSPAC): DETR, Home Office, DH, DfEE, MAFF, HMC&E and invitations to professionally interested Government Departments: ONS, NAO and Audit Commission, Cabinet Office CITU & Social Exclusion Unit, Treasury. Scalable e-GIF compliant (version 2.0) Data Warehouse with potential Departmental Data Mart, proxy and legacy server data input. Development of Data Mining Interface (October 2002). Inaugural meeting of Transaction Agency Trustees. Fully operationally tested non-stop high reliability secure version 3.0 for specification to call for Public Tender or for operation across Government for full service roll out in April 2004. Overall RTSG hope to achieve 20,000 reports per day to demonstrate the ease of use of the system and its robustness by the end of the three year project. Many reports relating to costs and performance in Health, Welfare and Social Exclusion but RTSG recognise that our participants will determine the mix. See Annex 1 for more detailed plan, milestones and budget. 3. Funding Requirements 2001-2 02-03 03-04ISB fundingof which: current750k750k750k capital150k150k150kBidders own funding - - - Participantsof which: current50k300k400k capital50k50k50k TOTALS 1000k1250k1350kFigure  SEQ Figure \* ARABIC 1 Funding Requirement 3.1 Alterations to Bid RTSG have produced a bid at minimum cost for a major computing project which easily coexists with existing IT plans and may prove an influential model for further development of e-Government and Citizen centred IT. To ensure continuity of focus control of the core engineering should remain with the Real Time Study Group but some system analysis, promotion and training could be carried out by participant Public Authorities at a saving of about 100,000 per year (See Annex 1). A high level of specialist skill is required to identify suitable standards sometimes to the level of audit in a few weeks in a potential participant. To minimise risk in the early stages, at least, we prefer to retain this capacity within the Project seeking any necessary advice from NAOs Performance experts, for example. Participants supplying their own hardware could result in further potential savings of about 120,000 per year. The supply of subsidised hardware enables us to promote a variety of methods of data capture for the Public Service Data Warehouse. We can gather input from desktops, proxy servers in local area networks, legacy servers in existing IT centres and Data Marts using low cost high reliably hardware. Should we meet our input targets readily we can then focus on Server side capacity. Flexibility here again reduces risk and as things stand RTSG can realistically aim for the targets set. A reduction of finance for costs of this kind would result in slower uptake and deferment of potentially far greater economies (as described in 9.1 and 9.2). There are to be three versions of the software. Superficially it might seem to be enough to get one or two versions only. First version 1.0 will handle users but will not necessarily comply with all desirable standards (many of which are only just becoming stable) or be scalable to extend across Government. Version 2.0 will support Modelling and Audit through the Data Mining Interface to the Public Service Data Warehouse, Departmental Data Marting and proxy server data capture as necessary. Version 3.0 will clean up version 2.0, add reliability and high availability. It will demonstrate high security bunker operation. It will be fully documented and be a model for emulation by tender, if the SIPSPAC Transaction Agency decide not to operate version 3.0 themselves. When our target of 20,000 reports per day is met RTSG would like to retain potential additional income generated for distribution as bonuses to project staff and possible autonomous operations by the putative Transaction Agency. Put simply proceeding with the project on a smaller scale would not allow us to operationally test for potential cross Government roll out. PFI/PPP options were ruled out because of the need to establish a new working practice of real time recording of public service transactions, which in a worst case may require the flourishing of a statutory instrument to ensure success. RTSGs potential participant contacts have been mostly constructive with the realisation that something of this kind was coming soon and was to a great extent long overdue. To RTSG cultural resistance is more perceived rather than encountered. Private finance may require more assurance and possibly legislation. See also 7. Additionality Test. 4. Innovation Harold Shipman, bullying and abuse in childrens homes, prisons and accommodation for the old and handicapped, unsafe agricultural, medical and nursing practices, deaths in custody, false arrest and conviction, uncertain asset registers and over-charging for Public Works all dictate the need for improved formal regulation and standards compliance. There is a substantial list of shame from the health service, police, courts and prisons to defence, fisheries and food, local authorities, housing and schools. Our systematic solution to this systematic management deficiency is automatic alerting when a performance index deviates from its standard. Given the data to meet that requirement we can additionally offer improved statistical modelling (and analysis) and enable real time audit. This is joined up Government methodology in action: too often these disciplines are separate but as expert practitioners agree they are inseparable. Use of statistics for real-time directed alerting (thus avoiding information overloading). Greatly improved facilities for evidence based Policy making by modelling with statistics. Real-time Audit on demand. Establishment of chains of authority for maintenance of statistics within the proper management range. This is in effect the instrumentation of the Public Service Process with the use of web-based graphics to make mimic diagrams of the Public Service. Instant knowledge of the current state of participants with a few mouse clicks. Demonstrable savings and performance achievements. True e-government to accelerate the evolution of Public Service Management. The lagging of British productivity by 35% behind some competitors despite having the longest working hours in Europe suggests this estimate may be too small. In Britains Public Service we can work smart and correct the deficiency using RTSGs AMART methodology. 5. Benefits to Participants The primary benefit to users is the timely enforcement of Public Service and Service Delivery Agreements. Project analysts will assist in translating these into alerting criteria. Real time audit will make fraud and waste much harder to perpetuate. Under current arrangements those allowing over-charging or actually deliberately planning fraud might have a year before routine checks would disclose anything unusual. By adopting best practice timely recording of transactions in real time audit can performed between any date range at any time thus enabling audit level checking on a day by day, on demand basis. This reporting would be carried out through the Data Mining Interface of the Data Warehouse. Eventually comparison of costs, for example, across the Public Service would be feasible, again on a real time basis rather than after the publication of annual figures with all their associated delays. Alerting when a performance measure fails an agreed compliance test will be very important in improving the timeliness of Public Service management and thus reduce costs as acute conditions are tackled before they become chronic. Further possible applications include exclusion from school; community care visits; patient test results, hospital appointments, bed availability; statutory accident book inspections; social worker and probation officer reports. In the area of cost control, alerting on a variance test of a purchase ledger is an obvious application. Indeed RTSG showed in their Expression of Interest how when costs are out of control, as seems to be the case in Local Authority Housing Repairs 2, for example, several hundred million pounds can be saved across the country. We show in scenario two of the Appraisal (9.1) the three year cost of the project can be met by proper control of Housing Repairs of a single London Borough for one year. The three-year 63 million refurbishment/repair program of Local Authority housing in LB Camden seems appropriate for this treatment, for example. RTSG has little doubt that when applied to Public Works in general, outsourcing and supply of services substantial savings may be possible. By setting standards and establishing responsibilities RTSG believes the more productive culture of Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) might be encouraged. AMART raw data methodology will for the first time provide the tools for work groups to propose their own Development Plans by providing access to data competent to predict an outcome. Using my colleague Professor Jones Gamma Test, for example, the implicit error in such data can be made explicit. The infrastructure for an environment of participant employee development is established. 6. Estimated Savings Estimates for global waste in the UK Public Service are not agreed but a more robust basis for estimation comes from the Treasurys Productivity in the UK: The Evidence and the Governments Approach 3. The Chancellor points out we are 35% less productive than some of our competitors. Since our hours at work are the highest in Europe it follows our costs are too high. Assuming productivity in the Public Sector is less than productivity in the Private Sector we see that we are approaching a potential 100 billion global waste figure. The SIPS project may be able to detect 1% of this waste by the end of three years but how much corrective action will managers take? We might expect a high compliance here because the reporting system will inform senior management if appropriate action is not taken in a timely manner. If only the large deviations are acted on, say, one in five, and making the celebrated Pareto type assumption that 20% of input yields 80% of value, then some 800 million of waste may be within the regulatory capability of the SIPS project. A lower bound to savings might arise if we assume only reluctant and desultory uptake of the service. Even then regulation of only one cost in one London Borough for one year, if that cost was Local Authority Housing Repair, might lead to savings of some 5 million. See 9.1 Appraisal for NPV and 9.2 Risk calculations. 7. Additionality Test Ensuring Public Authority compliance with standards is uniquely a management prerogative of Central Government. The introduction of real time measurement of performance standards compliance (The Instrumentation of the Public Service Process) with RTSGs easy access to both academic and commercial excellence in an action/research demonstration project prior to invitation to tender by suppliers seems ideal. To refine an optimal user interface Establish working practices enabling standards policy development The sharing of best practice. This project is too innovatory for mainstream private industry who currently use these techniques only in the restricted context of, for example, Customer Relationship Management, just in time stock management and point-ofsale systems for supermarkets. The special requirements of statistical data capture which may be used for audit in the Public Service, where we might want to capture an anonymysed client visit outcome from a social worker or nurse by secure e-mail, put this outside their experience. See also 3.1 Alterations to bid. 8. Accountability and Audit Nick Green Chairman Real Time Study Group will prepare accounts for approval for Christopher Angell DETR who will act as AO/DCO. RTSG will prepare such reports as are required and as further demonstration of the AMART methodology set up a real time web based monitoring scheme for accountability of project performance, expenditure and milestone achievement including alerting. 9. Project Cycle Management 9.1 Appraisal With the assumptions described in paragraph 6. Estimated Savings we perform a NPV calculation as follows: For Best Case Project Performance Assume 20,000 by project end reports per day sampling assumed Global Public Service Waste of 100 billion. Good will factor 100% (Everyone complies with SIPS project goals) 1% of Public Service activity sampled by the SIPS project (40 Local Authorities, 10 Area Health Authorities and 6 Central Government Departments). Only one in five (the Pareto assumption that 20% of input accounts for 80% of value) alerts lead to successful management outcomes but it is for the highest value processes. This leads to 400 million savings assuming 10,000 reports per day for two years as average of linear growth of reports received starting year two at zero and year three at 20,000. Year 0Year 1Year 2Costs1million1.25 million1.35 millionBenefits0100 million300 millionNet Benefits-1 million98.75 million298.65 millionDiscount Factor10.940.89Net Present Value-1 million92.8 million265.8 millionCumulative NPV- 1 million91.8 million357.6 millionFigure  SEQ Figure \* ARABIC 2 Best Case NPV For Worst Case Performance Assume Targeted effective use by only one London Borough for one year on Housing Repairs Good will factor less than 1% (Everyone resistant, no assistance from Central Government) From Audit Commission Local Authority Performance Indicators 1998-19992 we find a pair of adjacent London Boroughs with Weekly Housing Repair Costs per dwelling with a 3.54 cost difference. We alert managers to improve the performance of the high cost Borough to the level of the lower cost Borough. Total saving in one year = 52 x 3.54 x 27,604 = 5,081,344.32. (Weeks per year x cost difference x total dwellings in high cost Borough). Year 0Year 1Year 2Costs1million1.25 million1.35 millionBenefits00 million5.08 millionNet Benefits-1 million-1.25 million3.73 millionDiscount Factor10.940.89Net Present Value-1 million-1.18 million3.32 millionCumulative NPV- 1 million-2.18 million 1.14 millionFigure  SEQ Figure \* ARABIC 3 Worst Case NPV 9.2 Risk Assessment and Expected Outcome In the above we assumed the outcome was dependent on the good will of participants to the SIPS Project. Here we identify the dominant component of risk. The technical competence of the project team in producing a robust easy to use system is a major factor. The experience and expertise of the team is such as to give a small risk rating to any sub-optimal technological outcome (conservative technical choices will be made in what is now widely used and well proven technology, although the best will be aimed for). Our good will to our own project is 100%. We assume the good will of the principal agents in Central Government (HM Treasury and DETR) can be rated 100% since they have approved our Expression of Interest without reservation. We conclude that good will among other Central Government Departments, Local Authorities and Area Health Authorities is the determinant. Taking a reasonable but pessimistic view we make an inverse Pareto assumption for the distribution of good will among participants that 80% will have a 20% (20% will have 0% good will) good will yielding an average of 16% we obtain: Cumulative NPVProbabilityBest Case357.6 million0.16Worst Case1.14 million0.84Figure  SEQ Figure \* ARABIC 4 Risk Assessment and Expected Outcome Expected Outcome = 0.16 x 357.6 million + 0.84 x 1.14 million = 58.18 million Net Cumulative Benefit 10. Monitoring and Evaluation See paragraph 8. Accountability and Audit. Note also our project Manager will comply with Prince2 requirements. We will supply reports as required including estimates of waste detected and corrected. We will call for a meeting of the participants project advisory committee (SIPSPAC) in October 2001. The reporting chain will be as follows Project Manager responsible to Real Time Study Group (Chairman Nick Green) who will in turn report to Christopher Angell at DETR or any nominee approved by DETR. Annex 1: Implementation Plan and Budget Month 1 (April 1st 2001) Establish small project office. Receptionist 4/5 shared (hot) desks and meeting room. Retain and hire consultants, appoint programmers and system analysts. Go to contract with sub-contractors. Appoint Project Manager. Formalise top level-specification. Initiate first coding for alerting and data input from e-mail. HTML graphical realisation of tree structured Public Service Process Diagrams Establish priorities with Treasury for Standards in PSAs and SDAs2 requiring more rigour in enforcement amongst potential participants. Establish priority list of potential participant (best and worse practice) Local Authorities with DETR. Formal Invitations to participate sent to Ministers at DfEE, MAFF, HMC&E, Home Office and DH with Invitations to consult with NAO, Audit Commission, ONS and Cabinet Office CITU and Social Exclusion Unit. Participants and consultants first SIPSPAC (Statistical Information on Standards Participants Advisory Committee) meeting in second quarter of project. Establish priorities with Department of Health for Area Health Authorities Month 2 System Design implementation review. Potential Issues e.g. Support of cell phone and WAP input, low cost capture of legacy data. Review of Security Plan. Data Mining Interface definition. Agree version 1.0 Registration Dialogue specification. Agree version 1.0 Billing specification. Further assessment of demand and tariff for participant subscription. Recruit PR, conference and support staff. Month 3 Simulated Look and Feel prototype demonstrated for e-mail alerts, public service process diagram notation with explanatory and definitional texts of current performance and standards. Encourage web- friendly descriptions of the reporting site with photographs (jpegs) and future standards to be achieved- news of intended and forthcoming developments for standard compliance. Recruit early beta testing technology adopters using where necessary subsidised hardware as incentive. (Camden Council, Camden and Islington Area Health Authority, seem most likely at time of writing) Establish Real Time Accountability: web based reporting of Project accounts, milestones, staff and sub-contractor activity to DCO in DETR incorporating expenditure, income and progress to goal of 20,000+ daily reports from six Central Government Departments, 40 Local authorities and 10 Local Area Health Authorities. Mimic diagram of Real Time Study Group SIPS Project Development Process with attached statistics, alerting and real-time audit as additional test-bed for SIPS Project and required project management accountability and reporting for DETR DCO and Treasury. Months 4-6 Completion of Version 1 working prototype with Registration Dialogue, User Billing, Public Service process mimic diagram by sub-contractor. Is standard of work satisfactory? Decision: proceed with contractor to Version 2 or recruit further staff? Running with first subscribers/users on simple Database Server. First Meeting SIPSPAC and completion of Version 1.0. Set up focussed technical sub-committees, if necessary. RTSG conclude three year zero cost software license agreement with DETR. (This to enable continued Development for application overseas and in Developing Countries. We foresee that capital transfers for Development Aid might become conditional on adoption of the AMART methodology) 370k spent. Months 7- 19 Development of version 2 with Data Warehouse and Data Mining Interface for audit and statistical modelling, full XML interworking compliance, data capture from proxy servers in local area networks, experimental Data Marts for e.g. DETR and DH. First Conference to promote SIPS Project. Article in e.g. Government Computing, Computer Weekly etc. Review promotion with local events. Compliance with stipulations subject to satisfactory Design Study Review. From Audit Agencies for transaction audit. from Statistical Agencies from IT Agencies Agreement on Data Mart model. Further conferences, workshops, seminars as necessary to meet goals: volume of usage by participants and standards selected. Review of goals an achievements with HMT, DETR and SIPSPAC Selection of participants for real time audit. Review of potential Freedom of Information Model Publishing Scheme applicability and Data Protection (Information) Commissioners requirements for distribution of Citizen owned private keys for retrieval of anonymysed records. Review of potential for project architecture to support enhanced citizen authentication and application of object-oriented methods to transactions as future-proof design goal. Estimate lifetime of use for software -20/30 years? Review production of user tools for Public Service process diagram production and Data Mine. Additional 1100k spent. Months 20-36 10,000 reports coming in per day increasing to 20,000. If uptake is widespread and PCs are not necessary as incentives further capacity can be created to exceed the target 20,000 reports per day. Any additional participant income the SIPS Project would like to retain and pass on to staff as performance bonuses. First meeting of Transaction Agency Trustees who, it is suggested, will be responsible for future real-time recording and distribution of Public Service Performance data. Completion of specification and construction of final version 3 for roll out across public service or putting out to tender to third party suppliers. Data Warehouse supporting input from all web standard compliant computers. (E-mail, WAP, Proxy, Data Mart and other SQL database servers and legacy data servers) Transaction Agency decides whether to go to tender or continue operations and Cross Government roll out with SIPS Version 3.0 Additional 2100k spent Hardware Supply of subsidised hardware to participants is intended as an incentive to participants. Depending on uptake hardware can be used to create extra server or client capacity. Computer hardware and system software has been allocated to 200,000 per year. This is to cover costs of staff equipment, servers, Marts and the Data Warehouse and their operation as necessary on secure sites. RTSG will aim for 23 24 hours availability per day to users. Where necessary 75% subsidised PCs, proxy servers, Data Marts will be used as an incentive to participant data donors. Flexibility and adaptation are key to the success of this plan. These are also characteristics of the Staff Plan below.  EMBED PowerPoint.Slide.8  Figure  SEQ Figure \* ARABIC 5 Example Target Hardware Configuration Staff Plan RTSG have characterised costs as the cost of employing staff see Budget below. In this way RTSG have subsumed office costs, accommodation, transport and equipment. RTSG want to retain flexibility at this stage regarding employment of sub-contractors, expert consultant and part-time out-workers. In IT some employees can be as much as twenty times more productive than others. With this in mind RTSG want to avoid declaring full-time 3-year contracts for a fixed number. A small number of permanent junior staff will be kept as an option. RTSG will certainly want a full-time project manager and probably a fulltime lead programmer, a shared facility office suitable for conferencing and short courses and seminars for staff. In general RTSG prefer to employ experts for a short time rather than a larger number of lower paid full-time staff. Thorough and proper documentation of the project and senior hands-on management will ensure transferability of skills. Outline Budget Annual Cost of StaffStaff FunctionYear 1Year 2Year 3Public Relations: Training Conferences Promotion75,00075,00075,000System Analysis Group: Classification of Data Participant Support Analysts 150,000150,000150,000Graphics identity artist 50,000 each person year including support costsXML ConsultantPublic Service Graphics programmerSQL ConsultantSQL Programmer PC programmer Data Mining ConsultantResearch Assistant Database CriticResearch Assistant Data Mine CriticProject management, consulting, sub- contracting, legal and admin support.175,000425,000525,000PC and server supply, system software150,000150,000150,000Total Required =SUM(ABOVE) 1,000,000.00 =SUM(ABOVE) 1,250,000.00 =SUM(ABOVE) 1,350,000.00INCOMEISB Income900,000900,000900,000Participant income at 5,000 each DETR, HMC&E,MAFF, DfEE, Home Office, DH, Local Authorities, Health Authorities + hardware sales100,000350,000450,000Figure  SEQ Figure \* ARABIC 6 Outline Budget Some Key Activities Registration of users A key design activity is the production of a generic registration dialogue, which will be refined throughout the lifetime of the project. It will allow participants to register a Time Series and the e-mail addresses of managers and their managers along with the Standards that must complied with and the SQL report needed to display the component performances on the Public Service Process mimic diagram. Sometimes a computation will be required, sometimes the simple detection of an agreed level. Ascending the chain of managers responsible time criteria must be agreed to allow junior managers to bring a performance measure back to standard. Changes of management must be registered and changes of standard. Key words and definitions associated with a series and its associated standard will be required. Public Service Process Diagram When sufficient data is collected into a group the form for display on a Public Service Diagram must be agreed. A library of generic public service diagram components will be built up and XML based tools for creation of these diagrams will be developed. Eventually SIPS Project analysts will de-skill this process so that all key operations can be performed on-line and where necessary training key personnel in a Public Authority. Figure 7 crudely represents some of the functionality of the Public Service Process Diagram. A great deal of work will be done refining and extending facilities, text definitions, display options. The red line on the inset histogram showing last 30 weeks death rate is one representation of the standard. Exceeding this standard would suggest a Hospital infection, for example.  EMBED PowerPoint.Slide.8  Figure  SEQ Figure \* ARABIC 7 Functionality of Public Service Process Diagram Project Management RTSG will require the Project Manager to conform to Prince2 methodology and supervise analysts, programmers and sub-contractors. Preliminary analysis suggests no software innovation risk. Complexity in software seems tractable, as is Public Service process mapping provided focus is maintained. The Project Managers responsibility will be to meet software delivery dates for the three versions proposed and initiate training and induction for system analysts, conferences and promotion of the project. RTSG will use a mixture of sub-contractors and permanent staff to achieve our goals. With the establishment of the SIPS project advisory committee made up of participants from central government, the Audit agencies, Statistics agencies and Central IT Unit of the Cabinet Office RTSG will review the need for sub-committee level liaison with Local Authorities and experts in Standards in computing, statistics and audit. Training in modelling with statistics might also be considered and applications of the Public Service Data Mine that lead to improvements in Public Policy formulation. Analyst Group Their recommendations will result in refinement of the registration dialogue and clarify issues of classification, keywords and nomenclature for a given performance series. They will be responsible for transforming raw data into performance measures and standards usable for alerting; establishing reporting chains and, if necessary, e-mail couriers where e-mail has not fully penetrated an organisation. They will specify routine SQL reports needed to transform raw data into a fully annotated Public Service Process diagram. In many ways the function of this group is most critical to the success of the Project. They will be out in the field talking to potential participants and helping identify the fields of records required for real-time recording of existing statistical data and transactions. Sub-Contractors Where the necessary skills are available at market price sub-contracting will be used where feasible. A small core of directly employed staff is foreseen to maintain highest standards of sub-contractors. If suitable sub-contractors are not available an expansion of permanent and contract staff will be undertaken. Overall supervision will be by RTSG, its Project Manager and its consultants. Manuals and Documentation A short user guide to registration and routine use will be produced including a laminated summary card; a guide to the Public Service Process Map and tools for its production. A Users Guide to the Data Mining Interface for production of reports, extraction of data, interface with modelling packages. Separate guidelines for audit are also likely. All of this will be available for downloading in PDF etc format. In the third year full manuals for operation, management and development of the AMART SIPS client and server software suite. Full specification for Public Tendering. Annex 2: The Real Time Study Group (RTSG) The Real Time Study Group is design partnership set up in 1997 and based in the Department of Computer Science at the University of Wales. It is commercially independent. After discussion with Cabinet Office in response to the deficiency in the then Better Government Plans for improvements to quantitative methods consultations with Public Authorities lead to the current proposals. We have six full members: Alec Gray is Professor of Advanced Information Systems has consulted for Treasury and is head of one of the UKs largest Database Research Groups. Antonia Jones is Professor of Evolutionary and Neural Computing and inventor of the Gamma Test for estimating noise in Statistical Models. Dr Allenna Leonard is a management consultant specialising in the VSM methodology and Knowledge Management. Dr Robin Bailey and Dr Alan Mills are web specialists and founder directors of Venus Internet Ltd who the founding RTSG partners may invite ( HYPERLINK http://www.venus.co.uk www.venus.co.uk) to complete the first version of the prototype software (by October 1st 2001). Nick Green (Chairman), Software Engineer responsible for UKs World Wide Web precursor Compunet, has developed the Alerting, Modelling and Audit in Real Time (AMART) methodology (Statmail) into what HM Treasury has called the Statistical Information on Performance Standards (SIPS) project. Many thanks to Tom Campbell Chief Technology Officer of Just People Ltd ( HYPERLINK http://www.justpeople.com www.justpeople.com). References 1. NHS Performance Indicators: July 2000  HYPERLINK http://www.doh.gov.uk/nhsperformanceindicators/hlpi2000/downloads.html http://www.doh.gov.uk/nhsperformanceindicators/hlpi2000/downloads.html 2. Audit Commission Local Authority Performance Indicators 1998/1999 http://www.audit-commission.gov.uk/ 3. HYPERLINK "/pdf/2000/productivity7_11.pdf"Productivity in the UK: The Evidence and the Government's Approach (SOL 11/00 19585)  HYPERLINK http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/pdf/2000/productivity7_11.pdf http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/pdf/2000/productivity7_11.pdf 4. HYPERLINK "/sr2000/psa/index.html"Public Service Agreements 2001-2004 http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/sr2000/psa/index.html HYPERLINK "/sr2000/sda/index.html"Service Delivery Agreements  HYPERLINK http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/sr2000/sda/index.html http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/sr2000/sda/index.html 5. e-Government Interoperability Framework  HYPERLINK http://www.citu.gov.uk/egif.htm http://www.citu.gov.uk/egif.htm CONTACT For Real Time Study Group Nick Green  HYPERLINK mailto:nick.green@cs.cf.ac.uk nick.green@cs.cf.ac.uk 020 7916 0285 Room 40 5-7 Belsize Grove London NW3 4UT Our thanks to Paul Hines and Bon Searle of Formation Ltd for their help in the production of this booklet and recent discussions of Active Server Page technology. 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